Closing spread
NE -7
Total
54
Model margin
-1.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.193EPA / play-0.000
- 51.2%Success rate44.6%
- +0.301EPA / dropback+0.012
- +0.019EPA / rush-0.023
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.9%
- +3.92CPOE+0.64
- 46.4%Third-down rate30.9%
- 69.3%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 2.61Points / drive1.56
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 30/45 | 387 | 4 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 10 | 18 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 16 | 20 | 217 | 2 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 7 | 9 | 109 | 2 |
| Chad Johnson | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 27/40 | 369 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 12 | 74 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | -6 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Jones | 5 | 10 | 101 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 8 | 10 | 94 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 6 | 87 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 6 | 8 | 84 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 2 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Naaman Roosevelt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.1%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.48