2011 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

31·34

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 78°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NE -7

Total

54

Model margin

-1.5est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBills
  • +0.193EPA / play-0.000
  • 51.2%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.301EPA / dropback+0.012
  • +0.019EPA / rush-0.023
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +3.92CPOE+0.64
  • 46.4%Third-down rate30.9%
  • 69.3%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
  • 2.61Points / drive1.56
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 40–16 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NE @ BUF29–26NE
2025 · W15BUF @ NE35–31BUF
2025 · W5NE @ BUF23–20NE
2024 · W18BUF @ NE16–23NE
2024 · W16NE @ BUF21–24BUF
2023 · W17NE @ BUF21–27BUF
2023 · W7BUF @ NE25–29NE
2022 · W18NE @ BUF23–35BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–BUF
NEQ1 15:00985Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 9:45233Turnover7–0
NEQ1 8:46635Touchdown14–0
BUFQ1 6:011160Turnover14–0
NEQ1 0:1433Punt14–0
BUFQ2 14:4139Punt14–0
NEQ2 12:27630Punt14–0
BUFQ2 10:07512Punt14–0
NEQ2 7:33565Touchdown21–0
BUFQ2 6:01891Touchdown21–7
NEQ2 1:56539Turnover21–7
BUFQ2 1:05966Field goal21–10
NEQ2 0:0300End of half21–10
BUFQ3 15:0038Punt21–10
NEQ3 13:2710Turnover21–10
BUFQ3 13:16739Touchdown21–17
NEQ3 9:34981Field goal24–17
BUFQ3 4:5136Punt24–17
NEQ3 3:50950Punt24–17
BUFQ4 14:4332Punt24–17
NEQ4 13:11431Turnover24–17
BUFQ4 11:27449Touchdown24–24
NEQ4 10:3610Opp touchdown24–31
NEQ4 10:221576Touchdown31–31
BUFQ4 3:25774Field goal31–34

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady30/4538744

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stevan Ridley6427.00
Danny Woodhead6213.50
Wes Welker11919.00
BenJarvus Green-Ellis10181.80
Tom Brady155.00
Julian Edelman231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wes Welker16202172
Rob Gronkowski791092
Chad Johnson24280
Danny Woodhead35200
Stevan Ridley1180
Julian Edelman1350
Deion Branch0300

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick27/4036922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson12746.21
Brad Smith263.00
C.J. Spiller133.00
Donald Jones122.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick4-6-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Jones5101010
Steve Johnson810941
Fred Jackson56870
David Nelson68840
Scott Chandler23101
Brad Smith0100
Naaman Roosevelt0100
C.J. Spiller11-70

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

4.62%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.1%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.48