2011 · Week 6

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

14·29

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 72°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BAL -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapRavens
  • +0.024EPA / play+0.041
  • 44.6%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.066EPA / rush-0.057
  • 11.9%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -0.14CPOE-1.68
  • 41.5%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 2.04Points / drive1.79
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.7 points. BAL are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5HOU @ BAL44–10HOU
2024 · W17BAL @ HOU31–2BAL
2023 · playoffsHOU @ BAL10–34BAL
2023 · W1HOU @ BAL9–25BAL
2020 · W2BAL @ HOU33–16BAL
2019 · W11HOU @ BAL7–41BAL
2017 · W12HOU @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W16BAL @ HOU13–25HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–BAL
HOUQ1 15:001238Punt0–0
BALQ1 9:5516102Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 1:08935Punt0–7
BALQ2 11:074-9Punt0–7
HOUQ2 10:06621Turnover on downs0–7
BALQ2 7:333-4Turnover0–7
HOUQ2 6:11316Touchdown7–7
BALQ2 4:48944Field goal7–10
HOUQ2 1:5033Punt7–10
BALQ2 0:3110Turnover7–10
HOUQ2 0:21429End of half7–10
BALQ3 15:00647Field goal7–13
HOUQ3 11:46680Touchdown14–13
BALQ3 8:36779Field goal14–16
HOUQ3 3:30513Punt14–16
BALQ3 1:27451Field goal14–19
HOUQ4 14:44937Punt14–19
BALQ4 10:57524Punt14–19
HOUQ4 8:3936Punt14–19
BALQ4 6:38666Touchdown14–26
HOUQ4 4:0146Turnover on downs14–26
BALQ4 3:3434Field goal14–29
HOUQ4 1:5549Turnover on downs14–29
BALQ4 1:1700End of half14–29

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub21/3722010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster15493.30
Ben Tate9414.60
Matt Schaub133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jacoby Jones47761
Kevin Walter68520
Arian Foster611520
Derrick Mason34270
Owen Daniels23130
Bryant Johnson0100
Joel Dreessen0200
Ben Tate0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco20/3330501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice231014.40
Ricky Williams284.01
Joe Flacco3-1-0.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin891320
Torrey Smith35840
Ray Rice57600
Ed Dickson23200
Dennis Pitta2590
Ricky Williams0100
LaQuan Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

4.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.0%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.70