Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.024EPA / play+0.041
- 44.6%Success rate41.6%
- +0.116EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.066EPA / rush-0.057
- 11.9%Explosive rate8.2%
- -0.14CPOE-1.68
- 41.5%Third-down rate42.5%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 2.04Points / drive1.79
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 13–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.7 points. BAL are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 21/37 | 220 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 15 | 49 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Jones | 4 | 7 | 76 | 1 |
| Kevin Walter | 6 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 6 | 11 | 52 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 20/33 | 305 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 23 | 101 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 8 | 9 | 132 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 5 | 84 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 5 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LaQuan Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.70