Closing spread
HOU -10
Total
41
Model margin
+4.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.173EPA / play+0.024
- 36.3%Success rate44.6%
- -0.210EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.127EPA / rush-0.066
- 7.6%Explosive rate11.9%
- -11.15CPOE-0.14
- 34.3%Third-down rate41.5%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.10Points / drive2.04
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 27-20-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 10/30 | 97 | 1 | 2 |
| Luke McCown | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 18 | 63 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcedes Lewis | 4 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Jarett Dillard | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jason Hill | 1 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Mike Sims-Walker | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Martin Rucker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 16/30 | 225 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 33 | 112 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Ben Tate | 5 | 42 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Walter | 5 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 4 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 3 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Arian Foster | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.60