2011 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

14·24

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

HOU -10

Total

41

Model margin

+4.6est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTexans
  • -0.173EPA / play+0.024
  • 36.3%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.210EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.127EPA / rush-0.066
  • 7.6%Explosive rate11.9%
  • -11.15CPOE-0.14
  • 34.3%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 1.10Points / drive2.04
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–HOU
HOUQ1 15:001280Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 8:21711Punt0–7
HOUQ1 5:40431Punt0–7
JAXQ1 3:25412Punt0–7
HOUQ1 1:5544Punt0–7
JAXQ2 14:5034Punt0–7
HOUQ2 13:5430Punt0–7
JAXQ2 13:22725Punt0–7
HOUQ2 10:58810Turnover0–7
JAXQ2 6:2828Touchdown7–7
HOUQ2 5:4133Punt7–7
JAXQ2 4:37854Turnover7–7
HOUQ2 1:02546Missed field goal7–7
JAXQ2 0:0400End of half7–7
JAXQ3 15:003-3Punt7–7
HOUQ3 13:17944Touchdown7–14
JAXQ3 9:10718Punt7–14
HOUQ3 5:1139Punt7–14
JAXQ3 3:1034Punt7–14
HOUQ3 2:0143Punt7–14
JAXQ3 0:33310Turnover7–14
HOUQ4 14:53540Touchdown7–21
JAXQ4 12:323-3Punt7–21
HOUQ4 11:35429Turnover7–21
JAXQ4 9:13821Touchdown14–21
HOUQ4 5:15859Field goal14–24
JAXQ4 0:18314End of half14–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert10/309712
Luke McCown0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew18633.51
Blaine Gabbert4143.50
Deji Karim372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcedes Lewis49450
Mike Thomas34240
Jarett Dillard13120
Maurice Jones-Drew13110
Jason Hill1551
Mike Sims-Walker0400
Martin Rucker0100
Deji Karim0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub16/3022510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster331123.41
Ben Tate5428.40
Matt Schaub122.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Walter59700
Owen Daniels46600
Jacoby Jones35590
Joel Dreessen22191
Arian Foster14120
Derrick Mason1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

3.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.60