Closing spread
NE -3
Total
52
Model margin
+1.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.193EPA / play+0.054
- 51.2%Success rate44.9%
- +0.301EPA / dropback+0.134
- +0.019EPA / rush-0.065
- 9.8%Explosive rate10.4%
- +3.92CPOE+3.03
- 46.4%Third-down rate45.1%
- 69.3%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 2.61Points / drive1.78
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 14–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. PIT are 6-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/35 | 198 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 7 | 9 | 94 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 6 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 4 | 7 | 36 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 2 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| Chad Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Price | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 36/50 | 365 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 13 | 70 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heath Miller | 7 | 9 | 85 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 7 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 9 | 15 | 67 | 1 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Weslye Saunders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.74