2011 · Week 8

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

17·25

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

NE -3

Total

52

Model margin

+1.7est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.193EPA / play+0.054
  • 51.2%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.301EPA / dropback+0.134
  • +0.019EPA / rush-0.065
  • 9.8%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +3.92CPOE+3.03
  • 46.4%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 69.3%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
  • 2.61Points / drive1.78
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 15–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2PIT @ NE3–20NE
2025 · W3PIT @ NE21–14PIT
2023 · W14NE @ PIT21–18NE
2022 · W2NE @ PIT17–14NE
2019 · W1PIT @ NE3–33NE
2018 · W15NE @ PIT10–17PIT
2017 · W15NE @ PIT27–24NE
2016 · playoffsPIT @ NE17–36NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–PIT
PITQ1 15:001168Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 9:0837Punt0–7
PITQ1 7:441572Field goal0–10
NEQ2 14:571111Punt0–10
PITQ2 10:193-7Turnover0–10
NEQ2 8:5328Touchdown7–10
PITQ2 8:201176Touchdown7–17
NEQ2 2:41957Field goal10–17
PITQ2 0:29452End of half10–17
NEQ3 15:0039Punt10–17
PITQ3 13:171480Field goal10–20
NEQ3 6:11745Missed field goal10–20
PITQ3 2:201056Field goal10–23
NEQ4 11:26614Punt10–23
PITQ4 8:48541Missed field goal10–23
NEQ4 6:031169Touchdown17–23
PITQ4 2:356-10Punt17–25
NEQ4 0:191-7Safety17–25
PITQ4 0:0800End of half17–25

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady24/3519820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Faulk6325.30
BenJarvus Green-Ellis591.80
Aaron Hernandez122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski79940
Wes Welker68390
Deion Branch47361
Kevin Faulk55200
Aaron Hernandez2491
Chad Johnson0100
Taylor Price0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger36/5036521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall13705.40
Mewelde Moore11616.00
Isaac Redman7111.60
Ben Roethlisberger210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Heath Miller79850
Mike Wallace77700
Emmanuel Sanders58700
Antonio Brown915671
Mewelde Moore22291
Rashard Mendenhall34220
Jerricho Cotchery11100
David Johnson1170
Isaac Redman1250
Weslye Saunders0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.74