2011 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

23·20

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • +0.041EPA / play+0.054
  • 41.6%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.134
  • -0.057EPA / rush-0.065
  • 8.2%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -1.68CPOE+3.03
  • 42.5%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.78
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
BALQ1 15:001474Field goal3–0
PITQ1 8:1038Punt3–0
BALQ1 6:41946Missed field goal3–0
PITQ1 2:08652Field goal3–3
BALQ2 14:05934Field goal6–3
PITQ2 9:28624Punt6–3
BALQ2 6:4730Punt6–3
PITQ2 5:39949Field goal6–6
BALQ2 1:05422Field goal9–6
PITQ3 15:00966Turnover9–6
BALQ3 10:361348Touchdown16–6
PITQ3 4:271295Touchdown16–13
BALQ4 14:321140Turnover16–13
PITQ4 7:40658Touchdown16–20
BALQ4 4:5930Punt16–20
PITQ4 4:30620Punt16–20
BALQ4 2:241392Touchdown23–20
PITQ4 0:08220Turnover23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco28/4730010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice18432.41
Ricky Williams9242.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin710880
Torrey Smith510711
Dennis Pitta58460
Ray Rice57430
LaQuan Williams23280
Ricky Williams11110
Ed Dickson2580
David Reed0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger20/3733011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall13524.01
Ben Roethlisberger3134.30
Jerricho Cotchery133.00
Isaac Redman320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown5111090
Heath Miller56730
Mike Wallace46681
Jerricho Cotchery36440
David Johnson12250
Isaac Redman1180
Rashard Mendenhall1230
Hines Ward0100
Mewelde Moore0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.07
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.55