Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play+0.054
- 41.6%Success rate44.9%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.134
- -0.057EPA / rush-0.065
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.4%
- -1.68CPOE+3.03
- 42.5%Third-down rate45.1%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 1.79Points / drive1.78
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 28/47 | 300 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 18 | 43 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 7 | 10 | 88 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 5 | 10 | 71 | 1 |
| Dennis Pitta | 5 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 5 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| LaQuan Williams | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| David Reed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 20/37 | 330 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 11 | 109 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 5 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 6 | 68 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 3 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.07
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.55