2011 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Leinart

20·13

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

HOU -6

Total

37

Model margin

-0.1est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJaguars
  • +0.024EPA / play-0.173
  • 44.6%Success rate36.3%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback-0.210
  • -0.066EPA / rush-0.127
  • 11.9%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -0.14CPOE-11.15
  • 41.5%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 2.04Points / drive1.10
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–JAX
JAXQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
HOUQ1 14:172-3Opp touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 13:3837Punt0–7
JAXQ1 11:50422Punt0–7
HOUQ1 10:14867Touchdown7–7
JAXQ1 6:15614Punt7–7
HOUQ1 2:48515Punt7–7
JAXQ1 0:30977Field goal7–10
HOUQ2 10:4137Punt7–10
JAXQ2 8:393-3Punt7–10
HOUQ2 7:13226Touchdown14–10
JAXQ2 6:2430Turnover14–10
HOUQ2 5:503-1Field goal17–10
JAXQ2 4:13431Missed field goal17–10
HOUQ2 1:45850Field goal20–10
JAXQ2 0:0200End of half20–10
HOUQ3 15:0031Punt20–10
HOUQ3 14:2000Punt20–10
JAXQ3 14:07614Punt20–10
HOUQ3 10:32416Punt20–10
JAXQ3 8:37720Punt20–10
HOUQ3 5:2434Punt20–10
JAXQ3 3:1437Punt20–10
HOUQ3 2:13422Punt20–10
JAXQ4 14:3532Punt20–10
HOUQ4 13:4131Punt20–10
JAXQ4 12:1677Punt20–10
HOUQ4 9:0132Punt20–10
JAXQ4 7:03827Field goal20–13
HOUQ4 4:1537Punt20–13
JAXQ4 3:04734Turnover on downs20–13
HOUQ4 1:1400End of half20–13

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
T.J. Yates8/157000
Matt Leinart10/135710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster22653.01
Ben Tate5265.20
T.J. Yates4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Owen Daniels47310
Arian Foster79240
Andre Johnson23220
Joel Dreessen11201
Kevin Walter22150
Jacoby Jones12100
James Casey1250
Derrick Mason0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert13/2913601
Luke McCown7/116200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew18995.50
Luke McCown199.00
Blaine Gabbert111.00
Montell Owens2-2-1.00
Deji Karim2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Maurice Jones-Drew46670
Marcedes Lewis412470
Jarett Dillard35300
Cecil Shorts13250
Jason Hill34120
Mike Thomas25110
Montell Owens1160
Kassim Osgood0100
Deji Karim2300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.8%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-0.11