Closing spread
HOU -6
Total
37
Model margin
-0.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.024EPA / play-0.173
- 44.6%Success rate36.3%
- +0.116EPA / dropback-0.210
- -0.066EPA / rush-0.127
- 11.9%Explosive rate7.6%
- -0.14CPOE-11.15
- 41.5%Third-down rate34.3%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 2.04Points / drive1.10
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. JAX are 20-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yates | 8/15 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 10/13 | 57 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 22 | 65 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Ben Tate | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| T.J. Yates | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Daniels | 4 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 7 | 9 | 24 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 |
| Kevin Walter | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| James Casey | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 13/29 | 136 | 0 | 1 |
| Luke McCown | 7/11 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 18 | 99 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Luke McCown | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Montell Owens | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 4 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 4 | 12 | 47 | 0 |
| Jarett Dillard | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 1 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Jason Hill | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Montell Owens | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kassim Osgood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.11