Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
38.5
Model margin
-2.0est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play-0.091
- 41.6%Success rate40.3%
- +0.110EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.057EPA / rush-0.151
- 8.2%Explosive rate5.4%
- -1.68CPOE-4.62
- 42.5%Third-down rate38.1%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 1.79Points / drive1.09
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 10/23 | 158 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 29 | 204 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Dickson | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 17/35 | 192 | 1 | 1 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 2 | 52 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 2 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 3 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.8%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.21
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-1.96