2011 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

24·10

Browns

Cleveland

QB Colt McCoy

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 30mph

Closing spread

BAL -7

Total

38.5

Model margin

-2.0est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBrowns
  • +0.041EPA / play-0.091
  • 41.6%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback-0.059
  • -0.057EPA / rush-0.151
  • 8.2%Explosive rate5.4%
  • -1.68CPOE-4.62
  • 42.5%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.09
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00841Punt0–0
BALQ1 11:19860Turnover on downs0–0
CLEQ1 7:13518Punt0–0
BALQ1 4:291261Touchdown7–0
CLEQ2 13:17526Punt7–0
BALQ2 11:041183Missed field goal7–0
CLEQ2 4:3739Punt7–0
BALQ2 2:39756Missed field goal7–0
CLEQ2 0:5940Turnover7–0
BALQ2 0:3750Field goal10–0
CLEQ2 0:1300End of half10–0
BALQ3 15:00413Punt10–0
CLEQ3 12:5167Punt10–0
BALQ3 10:11621Turnover10–0
CLEQ3 8:02547Field goal10–3
BALQ3 5:55373Touchdown17–3
CLEQ3 4:5648Punt17–3
BALQ3 2:40944Punt17–3
CLEQ4 12:0630Punt17–3
BALQ4 11:49618Punt17–3
CLEQ4 8:1755Opp touchdown24–3
CLEQ4 6:581073Touchdown24–10
BALQ4 4:22622End of half24–10

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco10/2315800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice292047.01
Ricky Williams16764.81
Tyrod Taylor122.00
Joe Flacco4-1-0.30
Torrey Smith1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ed Dickson34470
Anquan Boldin24320
Torrey Smith14320
Dennis Pitta12260
Ray Rice23100
Lee Evans0300

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy17/3519211
Seneca Wallace1/1400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Hillis12453.80
Colt McCoy4123.00
Chris Ogbonnaya122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Peyton Hillis12520
Benjamin Watson38340
Jordan Norwood35290
Evan Moore23281
Chris Ogbonnaya56280
Greg Little37180
Mohamed Massaquoi1570

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.68%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.8%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.21
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-1.96