Closing spread
PIT -14
Total
40
Model margin
+6.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play+0.054
- 40.3%Success rate44.9%
- -0.059EPA / dropback+0.134
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.065
- 5.4%Explosive rate10.4%
- -4.62CPOE+3.03
- 38.1%Third-down rate45.1%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 1.09Points / drive1.78
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 18/35 | 209 | 0 | 2 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1/1 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Montario Hardesty | 11 | 24 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Moore | 4 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 3 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 2 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Montario Hardesty | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 16/21 | 280 | 2 | 1 |
| Charlie Batch | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 18 | 76 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 8 | 151 | 1 |
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.8%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.76