2011 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Colt McCoy

3·14

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 31°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PIT -14

Total

40

Model margin

+6.8est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.091EPA / play+0.054
  • 40.3%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.059EPA / dropback+0.134
  • -0.151EPA / rush-0.065
  • 5.4%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -4.62CPOE+3.03
  • 38.1%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
  • 1.09Points / drive1.78
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. PIT are 30-26-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CLE @ PIT6–27PIT
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PIT
CLEQ1 15:00978Field goal3–0
PITQ1 9:22669Touchdown3–7
CLEQ1 6:12843Punt3–7
PITQ1 1:53760Turnover3–7
CLEQ2 13:23313Turnover3–7
PITQ2 12:4017Turnover3–7
CLEQ2 12:30952Punt3–7
PITQ2 7:34517Punt3–7
CLEQ2 4:5538Punt3–7
PITQ2 3:3531Punt3–7
CLEQ2 2:5933Punt3–7
PITQ2 1:5847Punt3–7
CLEQ2 0:1323End of half3–7
PITQ3 15:001167Punt3–7
CLEQ3 9:131030Punt3–7
PITQ3 3:261599Turnover on downs3–7
CLEQ4 10:3934Punt3–7
PITQ4 9:0949Turnover3–7
CLEQ4 7:10835Turnover3–7
PITQ4 3:11280Touchdown3–14
CLEQ4 2:521435Turnover on downs3–14

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy18/3520902
Seneca Wallace1/11300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ogbonnaya23115.50
Peyton Hillis10252.50
Montario Hardesty11242.20
Colt McCoy6152.50
Josh Cribbs133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Moore45550
Mohamed Massaquoi37440
Josh Cribbs22380
Greg Little26250
Jordan Norwood24210
Alex Smith23190
Benjamin Watson23110
Montario Hardesty2290
Peyton Hillis0100
Chris Ogbonnaya0200

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger16/2128021
Charlie Batch0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall18764.20
Isaac Redman6355.80
Mike Wallace12121.00
Mewelde Moore3155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown581511
Mike Wallace45570
Jerricho Cotchery23331
David Johnson22220
Heath Miller24110
Hines Ward1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.8%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.27
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.76