Closing spread
BAL -10.5
Total
38
Model margin
+6.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play+0.041
- 40.3%Success rate41.6%
- -0.059EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.057
- 5.4%Explosive rate8.2%
- -4.62CPOE-1.68
- 38.1%Third-down rate42.5%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.09Points / drive1.79
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 19/33 | 147 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 24 | 112 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Little | 4 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 5 | 7 | 35 | 1 |
| Josh Cribbs | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Carlton Mitchell | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 11/24 | 132 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 23 | 87 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 3 | 3 | 48 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 5 | 14 | 1 |
| Lee Evans | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Tandon Doss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.2%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.21
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.20
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.50