2011 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Seneca Wallace

14·20

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 44°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BAL -10.5

Total

38

Model margin

+6.5est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapRavens
  • -0.091EPA / play+0.041
  • 40.3%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.059EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.151EPA / rush-0.057
  • 5.4%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -4.62CPOE-1.68
  • 38.1%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.09Points / drive1.79
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. BAL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BAL
CLEQ1 15:00944Turnover0–0
BALQ1 10:1349Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 9:12520Punt0–7
BALQ1 6:071062Field goal0–10
CLEQ1 0:5849Punt0–10
BALQ2 13:50982Touchdown0–17
CLEQ2 8:57418Punt0–17
BALQ2 7:09620Punt0–17
CLEQ2 3:211251End of half0–17
BALQ3 15:00517Punt0–17
CLEQ3 12:4938Punt0–17
BALQ3 11:2232Punt0–17
CLEQ3 10:243-1Punt0–17
BALQ3 9:02633Field goal0–20
CLEQ3 5:5035Punt0–20
BALQ3 4:4632Opp touchdown7–20
BALQ3 3:07847Turnover7–20
CLEQ4 14:071374Touchdown14–20
BALQ4 8:2235Punt14–20
CLEQ4 6:50728Turnover on downs14–20
BALQ4 3:5538End of half14–20

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Seneca Wallace19/3314711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Hillis241124.70
Seneca Wallace155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Little47400
Evan Moore57351
Josh Cribbs23280
Mohamed Massaquoi25170
Chris Ogbonnaya11120
Carlton Mitchell23120
Jordan Cameron1330
Peyton Hillis2400

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco11/2413221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice23873.80
Ricky Williams10454.50
Joe Flacco4307.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ray Rice33481
Torrey Smith27380
Ricky Williams22210
Ed Dickson25141
Lee Evans0400
Tandon Doss0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.62%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.2%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.21
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.20
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.50