Closing spread
NE -10
Total
49.5
Model margin
+6.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Bills
- OutBrad SmithQBHamstring· DNP
- OutDave RaynerKleft Groin· DNP
- OutDemetress BellTKnee· DNP
- OutKraig UrbikGKnee· DNP
- OutMike CaussinTEKnee· DNP
- ProbableJohnny WhiteRBConcussion· Full
- ProbableRuvell MartinWRHamstring· Full
Patriots
- OutLogan MankinsGKnee· DNP
- OutSebastian VollmerTBack· DNP
- QuestionableBrandon SpikesLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableBrian WatersGAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableDan ConnollyGGroin· Limited
- QuestionableDane FletcherLBThumb· Limited
- QuestionableDeion BranchWRGroin· Limited
- QuestionableDevin McCourtyCBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableJames IhedigboSShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableJulian EdelmanWRBack· Limited
- QuestionableKyle ArringtonCBFoot· Limited
- QuestionableMatt LightTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableMatt SlaterWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionablePatrick ChungSFoot· Limited
- QuestionableRob NinkovichLBHip· Limited
- QuestionableShane VereenRBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableTracy WhiteLBAbdomen· Limited
- QuestionableWes WelkerWRKnee· Limited
- ProbableTom BradyQBleft Shoulder· Limited
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.000EPA / play+0.193
- 44.6%Success rate51.2%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.301
- -0.023EPA / rush+0.019
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.8%
- +0.64CPOE+3.92
- 30.9%Third-down rate46.4%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate69.3%
- 1.56Points / drive2.61
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NE are 32-21-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 33 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 11:18 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 9:52 | 10 | 70 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| NE | Q1 5:19 | 4 | -8 | Punt | 14–0 |
| BUF | Q1 3:55 | 6 | 82 | Touchdown | 21–0 |
| NE | Q1 0:48 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| BUF | Q2 11:58 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 21–7 |
| NE | Q2 8:59 | 7 | 81 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| BUF | Q2 5:42 | 7 | 57 | Turnover on downs | 21–14 |
| NE | Q2 2:25 | 7 | 32 | Turnover | 21–14 |
| BUF | Q2 0:51 | 5 | 25 | Missed field goal | 21–14 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 50 | Field goal | 21–17 |
| BUF | Q3 12:19 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 21–17 |
| NE | Q3 8:38 | 8 | 71 | Field goal | 21–20 |
| BUF | Q3 5:13 | 2 | 8 | Turnover | 21–20 |
| NE | Q3 3:54 | 6 | 20 | Touchdown | 21–28 |
| BUF | Q3 1:32 | 10 | 43 | Turnover | 21–28 |
| NE | Q4 12:04 | 2 | 47 | Touchdown | 21–35 |
| BUF | Q4 11:16 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 21–35 |
| NE | Q4 10:23 | 14 | 88 | Touchdown | 21–42 |
| BUF | Q4 3:02 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 21–49 |
| BUF | Q4 2:55 | 5 | 21 | Turnover | 21–49 |
| NE | Q4 1:30 | 1 | 22 | End of half | 21–49 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 29/46 | 307 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 13 | 60 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Hagan | 7 | 10 | 89 | 0 |
| Ruvell Martin | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 4 | 7 | 40 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 4 | 8 | 40 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Naaman Roosevelt | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Kevin Brock | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/35 | 338 | 3 | 1 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1/1 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 15 | 81 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 2 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hernandez | 7 | 11 | 138 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 8 | 10 | 108 | 2 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 53 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 6 | 11 | 51 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.1%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.46