Closing spread
NE -10
Total
49.5
Model margin
+6.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.000EPA / play+0.193
- 44.6%Success rate51.2%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.301
- -0.023EPA / rush+0.019
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.8%
- +0.64CPOE+3.92
- 30.9%Third-down rate46.4%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate69.3%
- 1.56Points / drive2.61
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 29/46 | 307 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 13 | 60 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Hagan | 7 | 10 | 89 | 0 |
| Ruvell Martin | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 4 | 7 | 40 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 4 | 8 | 40 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Naaman Roosevelt | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Kevin Brock | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/35 | 338 | 3 | 1 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1/1 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 15 | 81 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 2 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hernandez | 7 | 11 | 138 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 8 | 10 | 108 | 2 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 53 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 6 | 11 | 51 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.1%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.46