Closing spread
PIT -7
Total
33
Model margin
-1.6est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.091
- 44.9%Success rate40.3%
- +0.134EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.151
- 10.4%Explosive rate5.4%
- +3.03CPOE-4.62
- 45.1%Third-down rate38.1%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 1.78Points / drive1.09
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 23/40 | 221 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Redman | 19 | 92 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| John Clay | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 6 | 10 | 90 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 5 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 16/41 | 177 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 3 | 44 | 14.7 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Montario Hardesty | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Cribbs | 7 | 10 | 91 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Carlton Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 2 | 9 | 16 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
4.63%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.8%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.20
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.59