2011 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

13·9

Browns

Cleveland

QB Seneca Wallace

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 24mph

Closing spread

PIT -7

Total

33

Model margin

-1.6est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.091
  • 44.9%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.134EPA / dropback-0.059
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.151
  • 10.4%Explosive rate5.4%
  • +3.03CPOE-4.62
  • 45.1%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.09
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. CLE are 26-30-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CLE @ PIT6–27PIT
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
PITQ1 13:091029Turnover on downs0–0
CLEQ1 9:0735Punt0–0
PITQ1 7:491128Punt0–0
CLEQ1 1:1432Punt0–0
PITQ1 0:191025Missed field goal0–0
CLEQ2 9:57957Field goal0–3
PITQ2 6:03515Punt0–3
CLEQ2 3:02740Field goal0–6
PITQ2 1:06871Field goal3–6
PITQ3 15:001266Field goal6–6
CLEQ3 9:4338Turnover6–6
PITQ3 8:22638Touchdown13–6
CLEQ3 5:27746Field goal13–9
PITQ3 1:5939Punt13–9
CLEQ4 14:4932Punt13–9
PITQ4 13:53310Turnover13–9
CLEQ4 12:4269Punt13–9
PITQ4 10:08843Turnover13–9
CLEQ4 5:49410Punt13–9
PITQ4 4:59626Punt13–9
CLEQ4 1:46852End of half13–9

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger23/4022100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaac Redman19924.81
Rashard Mendenhall8384.80
John Clay9313.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown610900
Jerricho Cotchery36280
Hines Ward57240
Heath Miller23230
Isaac Redman35180
Emmanuel Sanders12140
Mike Wallace15110
Rashard Mendenhall1170
David Johnson1160

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Seneca Wallace16/4117701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Seneca Wallace34414.70
Peyton Hillis10303.00
Montario Hardesty2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Cribbs710910
Evan Moore46390
Carlton Mitchell11190
Mohamed Massaquoi29160
Jordan Cameron15150
Greg Little0500
Peyton Hillis13-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

4.63%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.8%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.27
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.20
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.59