2011 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

24·45

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -10

Total

45.5

Model margin

+7.4est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

3.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.107EPA / play+0.046
  • 43.0%Success rate43.6%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback+0.130
  • -0.164EPA / rush-0.087
  • 6.3%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -1.20CPOE+1.80
  • 37.0%Third-down rate45.0%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 1.39Points / drive1.86
  • 3.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. ATL are 21-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001280Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 8:123-5Punt0–7
ATLQ1 6:22738Touchdown0–14
TBQ1 3:3010Turnover0–20
ATLQ1 3:16148Touchdown0–21
TBQ1 3:04510Turnover0–21
ATLQ1 0:14730Touchdown0–28
TBQ2 11:4034Opp touchdown0–35
TBQ2 10:4358Punt0–35
ATLQ2 7:39286Touchdown0–42
TBQ2 6:49876Touchdown7–42
ATLQ2 2:04637End of half7–42
TBQ3 15:00615Punt7–42
ATLQ3 12:50628Punt7–42
TBQ3 9:46969Field goal10–42
ATLQ3 4:19218Opp touchdown18–42
ATLQ3 3:32414Punt18–42
TBQ3 1:161177Touchdown24–42
ATLQ4 11:13645Turnover24–42
TBQ4 7:2148Turnover on downs24–42
ATLQ4 6:0938Field goal24–45
TBQ4 3:59727Turnover24–45
ATLQ4 1:3900End of half24–45

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman31/4527423

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Freeman3144.70
LeGarrette Blount6122.00
Josh Johnson155.00
Mossis Madu242.00
Kregg Lumpkin200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Preston Parker46740
Kellen Winslow79560
Dezmon Briscoe811532
Mike Williams12310
Kregg Lumpkin57270
Mossis Madu33190
LeGarrette Blount34140
Josh Johnson0200

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan6/910620
Chris Redman7/127101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner1717210.12
Jacquizz Rodgers8243.01
Julio Jones199.00
Chris Redman3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones45762
Roddy White49690
Tony Gonzalez1180
Eric Weems1180
Michael Palmer1270
Jacquizz Rodgers1150
Michael Turner0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +105.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.4%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.07
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.16
  • Expected margin+7.39