2011 · Week 17 · Division
Final
Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -10
Total
45.5
Model margin
+7.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play+0.046
- 43.0%Success rate43.6%
- -0.081EPA / dropback+0.130
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.087
- 6.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- -1.20CPOE+1.80
- 37.0%Third-down rate45.0%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.39Points / drive1.86
- 3.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 31/45 | 274 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mossis Madu | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Parker | 4 | 6 | 74 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 7 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| Dezmon Briscoe | 8 | 11 | 53 | 2 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 5 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Mossis Madu | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 6/9 | 106 | 2 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 7/12 | 71 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 17 | 172 | 10.1 | 2 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 4 | 5 | 76 | 2 |
| Roddy White | 4 | 9 | 69 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.4%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.07
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+7.39