2011 · DIV

Final

Texans

Houston

QB T.J. Yates

13·20

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 31°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

Total

37

Model margin

+7.6est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapRavens
  • +0.024EPA / play+0.041
  • 44.6%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.066EPA / rush-0.057
  • 11.9%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -0.14CPOE-1.68
  • 41.5%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 2.04Points / drive1.79
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.7 points. BAL are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5HOU @ BAL44–10HOU
2024 · W17BAL @ HOU31–2BAL
2023 · playoffsHOU @ BAL10–34BAL
2023 · W1HOU @ BAL9–25BAL
2020 · W2BAL @ HOU33–16BAL
2019 · W11HOU @ BAL7–41BAL
2017 · W12HOU @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W16BAL @ HOU13–25HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–BAL
HOUQ1 15:00420Field goal3–0
BALQ1 12:2430Punt3–0
BALQ1 11:1232Touchdown3–7
HOUQ1 9:5133Punt3–7
BALQ1 8:49530Field goal3–10
HOUQ1 6:0234Punt3–10
BALQ1 4:2935Punt3–10
HOUQ1 3:2110Turnover3–10
BALQ1 3:13534Touchdown3–17
HOUQ1 1:081064Field goal6–17
BALQ2 11:4238Punt6–17
HOUQ2 10:371291Touchdown13–17
BALQ2 4:48839Punt13–17
HOUQ2 0:2800End of half13–17
BALQ3 15:003-1Punt13–17
HOUQ3 13:0338Punt13–17
BALQ3 11:4535Punt13–17
HOUQ3 9:35746Missed field goal13–17
BALQ3 5:54857Turnover on downs13–17
HOUQ3 1:5333Punt13–17
BALQ3 0:2534Punt13–17
HOUQ4 13:30520Punt13–17
BALQ4 11:073-9Punt13–17
HOUQ4 9:34414Turnover13–17
BALQ4 7:21945Field goal13–20
HOUQ4 2:52334Turnover13–20
BALQ4 1:5139Punt13–20
HOUQ4 0:4549Turnover on downs13–20
BALQ4 0:1100End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
T.J. Yates17/3518403

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster271324.91
T.J. Yates1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson8151110
Owen Daniels23260
Kevin Walter28250
Arian Foster55220
Joel Dreessen0100
James Casey0200
Ben Tate0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco14/2717620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice21602.90
Ricky Williams6274.50
Joe Flacco2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin48731
Lee Evans11300
Dennis Pitta24290
Ray Rice45200
Ed Dickson14140
Torrey Smith1490
Kris Wilson1111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.52.9%5.7%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

69.0%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.02
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+7.64