Closing spread
NE -7
Total
49
Model margin
+2.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play+0.193
- 41.6%Success rate51.2%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.301
- -0.057EPA / rush+0.019
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.8%
- -1.68CPOE+3.92
- 42.5%Third-down rate46.4%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate69.3%
- 1.79Points / drive2.61
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.7 points. NE are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 22/36 | 306 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 21 | 67 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 6 | 8 | 101 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 5 | 82 | 1 |
| Dennis Pitta | 5 | 8 | 41 | 1 |
| Lee Evans | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Kris Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/36 | 239 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 15 | 68 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 6 | 2 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 5 | 8 | 87 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 7 | 11 | 66 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 6 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Slater | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.25
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.82