2011 · CON

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

20·23

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 29°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NE -7

Total

49

Model margin

+2.8est.

NE perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapPatriots
  • +0.041EPA / play+0.193
  • 41.6%Success rate51.2%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.301
  • -0.057EPA / rush+0.019
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -1.68CPOE+3.92
  • 42.5%Third-down rate46.4%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate69.3%
  • 1.79Points / drive2.61
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 11–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.7 points. NE are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16NE @ BAL28–24NE
2022 · W3BAL @ NE37–26BAL
2020 · W10BAL @ NE17–23NE
2019 · W9NE @ BAL20–37BAL
2016 · W14BAL @ NE23–30NE
2014 · playoffsBAL @ NE31–35NE
2013 · W16NE @ BAL41–7NE
2012 · playoffsBAL @ NE28–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–NE
BALQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:3337Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:4930Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:091345Field goal0–3
BALQ1 5:493-10Punt0–3
NEQ1 4:22313Turnover0–3
BALQ1 3:41767Field goal3–3
NEQ2 14:211067Touchdown3–10
BALQ2 10:35880Touchdown10–10
NEQ2 6:03963Field goal10–13
BALQ2 3:00734Punt10–13
NEQ2 0:5800End of half10–13
NEQ3 15:001374Field goal10–16
BALQ3 9:061183Touchdown17–16
NEQ3 3:3800Field goal17–16
BALQ3 3:2657Field goal20–16
NEQ3 0:501258Touchdown20–23
BALQ4 11:29734Turnover20–23
NEQ4 7:2210Turnover20–23
BALQ4 7:07734Turnover on downs20–23
NEQ4 2:4636Punt20–23
BALQ4 1:44965Missed field goal20–23
NEQ4 0:1100End of half20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco22/3630621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice21673.20
Joe Flacco4276.80
Ricky Williams6223.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin681010
Torrey Smith35821
Dennis Pitta58411
Lee Evans34390
Ed Dickson24230
Ray Rice13110
Kris Wilson0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady22/3623902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis15684.51
Danny Woodhead6183.00
Aaron Hernandez393.00
Tom Brady620.31
Julian Edelman1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski58870
Aaron Hernandez711660
Wes Welker68530
Deion Branch23180
Julian Edelman1280
Danny Woodhead1270
BenJarvus Green-Ellis0100
Matthew Slater0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.77%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.82