Closing spread
NE -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.239EPA / play+0.099
- 53.8%Success rate46.5%
- +0.412EPA / dropback+0.228
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.039
- 11.3%Explosive rate10.3%
- 44.4%Third-down rate45.1%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 2.73Points / drive2.15
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.033EPA / play allowed-0.088
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 16/29 | 256 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 30 | 142 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 26/38 | 335 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 15 | 86 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Bethel Johnson | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.41