Closing spread
NE -5.5
Total
35
Model margin
+1.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.099EPA / play-0.073
- 46.5%Success rate40.7%
- +0.228EPA / dropback-0.012
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.139
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- 45.1%Third-down rate35.8%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 2.15Points / drive1.71
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.088EPA / play allowed-0.135
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 82 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 10:11 | 6 | 71 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| NE | Q1 6:19 | 11 | 46 | Field goal | 10–9 |
| BUF | Q1 1:40 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| NE | Q1 1:26 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 10–10 |
| BUF | Q2 14:00 | 9 | 34 | Punt | 10–10 |
| NE | Q2 8:57 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–10 |
| BUF | Q2 7:19 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| NE | Q2 7:10 | 3 | 45 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| BUF | Q2 5:37 | 6 | 96 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| NE | Q2 2:43 | 6 | 61 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| BUF | Q2 1:28 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–17 |
| NE | Q2 0:36 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–17 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 17–17 |
| NE | Q3 10:51 | 7 | 64 | Punt | 17–17 |
| BUF | Q3 6:41 | 9 | 35 | Punt | 17–17 |
| NE | Q3 2:14 | 12 | 76 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| BUF | Q4 11:17 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 24–17 |
| NE | Q4 9:37 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 24–17 |
| BUF | Q4 7:57 | 11 | 34 | Opp touchdown | 31–17 |
| BUF | Q4 2:44 | 11 | 34 | Turnover on downs | 31–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 17/30 | 298 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Patrick Pass | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 18/30 | 247 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 24 | 98 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.35