Closing spread
NE -5.5
Total
35
Model margin
+1.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.099EPA / play-0.073
- 46.5%Success rate40.7%
- +0.228EPA / dropback-0.012
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.139
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- 45.1%Third-down rate35.8%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 2.15Points / drive1.71
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.088EPA / play allowed-0.135
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 17/30 | 298 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Patrick Pass | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 18/30 | 247 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 24 | 98 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.35