Closing spread
NE -7
Total
38
Model margin
+3.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play+0.099
- 40.7%Success rate46.5%
- -0.012EPA / dropback+0.228
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.039
- 8.2%Explosive rate10.3%
- 35.8%Third-down rate45.1%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.71Points / drive2.15
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.135EPA / play allowed-0.088
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 8/19 | 76 | 0 | 3 |
| J.P. Losman | 1/2 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burns | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 19/35 | 233 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 26 | 151 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 13 | 61 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Rohan Davey | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 4 | -5 | -1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.77