Closing spread
NE -7
Total
34.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play+0.099
- 38.4%Success rate46.5%
- -0.127EPA / dropback+0.228
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.039
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.3%
- 35.0%Third-down rate45.1%
- 51.3%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.22Points / drive2.15
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.136EPA / play allowed-0.088
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.7 points. NE are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 15/35 | 93 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 16 | 61 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 15/30 | 172 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 30 | 123 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Patrick Pass | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Rohan Davey | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.64
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.12