2004 · DIV

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

3·20

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · grass · 25°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NE -1

Total

51

Model margin

+4.0est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.239EPA / play+0.099
  • 53.8%Success rate46.5%
  • +0.412EPA / dropback+0.228
  • -0.005EPA / rush-0.039
  • 11.3%Explosive rate10.3%
  • 44.4%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 74.8%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 2.73Points / drive2.15
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
  • +0.033EPA / play allowed-0.088

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 18–10 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13IND @ NE25–24IND
2023 · W10IND @ NE10–6IND
2022 · W9IND @ NE3–26NE
2021 · W15NE @ IND17–27IND
2018 · W5IND @ NE24–38NE
2015 · W6NE @ IND34–27NE
2014 · playoffsIND @ NE7–45NE
2014 · W11NE @ IND42–20NE

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning27/4223801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James14392.80
Peyton Manning177.00

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady18/2714410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Dillon231446.30
Kevin Faulk11565.10
Tom Brady461.51
Deion Branch144.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.7%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.97