2026 · Regular season
Week 2
Week 2 is still to play — 16 games on the slate.
Briefing6
Falcons start Tua Tagovailoa rather than Cooper Rush, an unfamiliar starter the model prices conservatively.
Vikings start Kyler Murray rather than C.Wentz, an unfamiliar starter the model prices conservatively.
Giants lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.363, 0.002 clear of second.
Chiefs have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.378 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Jaguars at Broncos, where it rates Jaguars about 22.3 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
7 teams sit on the playoff bubble between 25% and 75%. The finest margin belongs to Seahawks at 57% across 10,000 simulations.
What this season can and cannot show1
- Next Gen Stats are published only through 2024.
Slate
